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If it's not one thing...

Already worried about a fast-slowing economy, American policymakers now face another, contradictory threat: resurgent(复活的) inflation.

RISING inflation is not, these days at least, the standard accompaniment(陪伴物, 伴奏) to an economic downturn (低迷时期）--except in America, that is. The latest consumer price index（消费者价格指数）, released on February 21st, showed an unexpectedly big jump in inflation, up by 0.6% over the previous month, bringing the annual rate in January to 3.7%. The figure is far higher than most economists expected.

The immediate impact of the inflationary surge was to dampen hopes of further interest-rate cuts. It also presented the Federal Reserve（美国联邦储备局，简称FED), and its chairman, Alan Greenspan, with a policy dilemma that could be hard to resolve. The new figures are an uncomfortable reminder that inflation is significantly higher in America than it is in either Europe or Japan. Until recently, American interest rates had been on an upward path—the Fed raised interest rates in May last year, and until its December meeting had considered inflation a bigger risk than a slowdown. That caution now seems well judged.

But towards the end of last year, speculation about the likelihood(可能, 可能性) of recession(不景气) became the latest national pastime after signs first appeared that America's torrid(过热的)  rate of growth had begun to slow. Predictably, perhaps, economists have been engaged in a lively, if inconclusive debate. Politicians, from President Bush down, have joined in, without—of course—clarifying the discussion. This near-obsession （困扰，成见）partly reflects suppressed anxiety about the impact of an economic downturn after a decade of remarkable expansion. It also reflects genuine uncertainty about what is happening. The official statistics don’t, as yet, provide a clear picture: most figures are backward-looking, and by the time it becomes clear how sharp the downturn has been, the worst may well be over anyway.

The change in mood has been swift. The Economist’s own poll of private forecasters has tracked the growing pessimism: in October, their consensus （多数人一致的意见）forecast for growth this year was 3.5%; at the beginning of February that figure was down to 1.8%. This gloomy forecast makes the Fed look optimistic: when Alan Greenspan testified before Congress on February 13th, he said the Fed’s economists now expected growth this year to be somewhere between 2% and 2.5%.

Such low figures make some people suspect America is in recession already (technically, the term refers to two successive quarters when GDP actually shrinks). Indeed, when Mr. Greenspan went to Capitol Hill in January he reckoned （计算，料想）that growth at the end of 2000 had come close to zero. But the debate over the R-word can distract attention from the more basic point: that after the extraordinarily rapid growth of recent years, even a growth rate of 1.5% or 2% this year is going to feel like a big shock. Workers are already being laid off（下岗，事业）, companies are cutting back on capital investment and inventories are rising in the aftermath of the sharp drop in consumer confidence late last year.

The turndown came quickly but there is speculation that the recovery could start just as fast—that this could be a V-shaped downturn (short and sharp) because companies, in particular, are geared to much faster response times, both to cut back when they spot the first signs of slowing growth and to expand equally rapidly when they spot a pick-up coming. Some economists already predict the worst might be over. Mr. Greenspan sounded more optimistic when speaking to senators on February 13th than he had been in his testimony only three weeks earlier.

But others are much gloomier. They reckon the worst is yet to come and that the unemployment figures, for instance, will rise a good deal more than they have so far. One of the striking features of the downturn has been the persistently（持续的）tight labor market: in January, the unemployment rate rose only slightly, to 4.2%. Some companies continue to report shortages of skilled labor which, more usually, would be a by-product of very rapid rather than very slow growth.

There are too many confusing and contradictory signals for a clear trend to have emerged. Policymakers are currently preoccupied with trying to ensure a soft landing: to bring American expansion down to more sustainable（可持续的）levels without too sharp or prolonged（延长的, 拖延的）a slowdown. That is why the Fed cut interest rates (twice) so aggressively in January. Mr. Bush is also exploiting these fears to marshal support for his tax-cutting plans.

But the Fed also has a very clear duty to keep inflation in check. Plenty of people, the stockmarkets included, had been counting on further interest-rate cuts. The new inflation figures will at least give Mr. Greenspan pause for thought before he lowers borrowing costs further. Are the interest-rate rises implemented by the Fed up to May last year still to have their full impact in curbing inflation? Or is the battle against rising prices one which will need to be rejoined（重新聚集, 回答, 答辩）? Mr. Greenspan worked for President Ford in the 1970s, when stagflation（滞涨；不景气状况下之物价上涨）—that unpleasant combination of rising inflation and stagnant or falling economic growth—started plaguing（讨厌的） the industrial economies. It is not an experience he will want to repeat.

  From time print edition