A
president at last
Dec
14th 2000
From The Economist Global Agenda
After
the Supreme Court’s intervention, Al Gore finally brought
the prolonged presidential contest to an end on a graceful
note. George W. Bush will be the 43rd president of the United
States. Real politics will resume as soon as possible
THE
American presidential election came to a carefully
choreographed end on the evening of December 13th, five weeks
and a day after it was supposed to be completed. Both Al Gore,
the Democratic loser, and George W. Bush, the new Republican
president-elect, were, as expected, at pains to strike
bipartisan poses and to be seen to reach out to the other side
after an extraordinarily bitter legal and political battle
over the counting of votes in Florida, upon which the entire
election turned.
Mr
Gore, in particular, was under pressure to be gracious, and he
rose to the occasion, pledging his support for Mr Bush and
telling his disappointed supporters to do likewise. "I
say to President-elect Bush that what remains of partisan
rancor must now be put aside, and may God bless his
stewardship of this country," Mr Gore declared.
|
|
|
|
 |
| Bush:
reaching out to Democrats |
|
|
|
|
Soon
afterwards, Mr Bush gave an equally gracious acceptance speech
from the Texas House of Representatives, ground zero for
bipartisan co-operation in his state. "Our nation must
rise above a house divided," said Mr Bush.
"Republicans want the best for our nation, and so do
Democrats. Our votes may differ, but not our hopes."
But
how long will this spirit last? Not long, judging from
history. When the first President Bush, George Herbert Walker,
gave his acceptance speech 12 years ago, he said “We
didn’t come here to bicker”. That attempt to change the
tone in Washington lasted about five minutes. Of course, that
time, the election lasted only a day as well.
This
time there will be lingering bitterness at the strange way the
election was decided. Mr Bush finally won only through an
extraordinary and controversial intervention by the US Supreme
Court, where a judicial brawl broke out between conservative
and liberal justices; and even many observers usually
sympathetic to the court are convinced that the decision to
stop the counting of votes in Florida was partisan. Many black
voters, in particular, are angry about the way they were
treated at Florida polling stations. The standard-issue
rhetorical reconciliation of Mr Gore’s and Mr Bush’s
speeches is unlikely to be enough to paper over such cracks.
Crisis?
What crisis?
And
yet the dream of bipartisanship may have to become reality if
Mr Bush’s new administration is to get anything done. Often
overlooked in the past five weeks is the fact that the divided
vote and the bitter arguments about it have had a surprisingly
narrow public resonance. One of the most extraordinary
episodes of American political history has just played itself
out before a surprisingly calm public: most polls showed that
barely a quarter of the population deemed it a crisis. The
doubt over who “really” won Florida makes any confident
political judgment almost impossible. So the candidates and
their supporters are going through the motions partly because
the election has given them little of substance to get to
grips with.
Above
all, nobody in Washington, DC (and very few in Austin), thinks
the election of 2000 represents a fundamental change. Mr Bush
did not win because he better understood some tectonic force
at work. Mr Gore did not lose because he ignored one. (The
vice-president ran a poor campaign, but that was largely a
matter of poor tactics and limited personal appeal.) Americans
voted for a change of leader, not a change in direction.
Together with the closely divided Congress and the lack of an
obvious mandate, this will undermine any expansive political
agenda. The ferocious post-election contest has somewhat
reduced the policy ambitions of American politicians.
|
|
|
|
 |
| Gore:
God bless George W. |
|
|
|
|
In
the short term (that is, before inauguration day on January
20th), the narrower view of politics should help Mr Bush
overcome any damage to his legitimacy caused by the manner of
his election.
On
the face of it, this might seem to undermine one of the main
advantages that a Bush presidency offered, which was that it
would be less destabilising than a Gore presidency, largely
because Republicans were more bitterly opposed to a Gore
victory and more inclined to perceive it as illegitimate had
it happened. The Supreme Court’s ruling might yet end up
affecting the way voters see Mr Bush’s victory in Florida,
harming his presidency and making the balance of Mr Bush’s
advantage narrower. But for the moment, this has not occurred.
A poll taken the day after the Supreme Court verdict found
that 80% of Americans said they were prepared to accept Mr
Bush as a legitimate president (although only 52% thought the
Supreme Court made the right decision and 42% disagreed with
it).
Fears
of a real legitimacy crisis, in the sense of a substantial
section of the country refusing to obey presidential orders by
appealing to a competing source of authority, have vanished.
American presidents tend to get their authority less from
direct popular mandate than from the powers of the presidency
itself and from their behaviour in office. Mr Bush will be no
exception.
Over
the next few days, Mr Bush will announce his first cabinet
appointments (favourites are Colin Powell as secretary of
state, Condoleezza Rice as national security adviser). There
will almost certainly be a Democrat or two in the cabinet as a
pledge of bipartisan good faith. Mr Bush will go to Capitol
Hill to deflate the policy hopes of his conservative
supporters and to sound out Democrats. And next week he meets
Mr Gore to speed up the transition process, made all the more
important because half of the normal period for it has already
been used up by the post-election wranglings. All this will
make Mr Bush appear, as he himself put it, “the president of
every single American, of every race and every background.”
|
|
|
|
 |
| Time
to go |
|
|
|
|
And
Mr Gore? His widely admired concession speech set off
speculation that he might try to run again in 2004. If Mr Bush
stumbles, such a thing would not be impossible. Mr Gore is
only 52 and won the popular vote in this election. But he is
likely to face much tougher competition in the primaries then
than he did this time, from the likes of Hillary Clinton and
Gray Davis, the governor of California. More important, many
Democrats blame Mr Gore for losing an election he should have
won easily. There are few places for gracious losers in
American politics.
From
The Economist Global Agenda |