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The London bombings will cost the UK up to 3 billion pounds 专家估计伦敦连环爆炸经济损失将达30亿英镑

The London bombings will cost the UK up to 3 billion pounds and have an effect on the economy comparable to a natural disaster   or deadly virus outbreak, an expert has said.

The World Markets Research Centre said the attacks will cause similar economic damage to a hurricane or earthquake, or the Sars crisis of 2003.

Jan Randolph, head of risk at the London-based business analysts, said: "You have the immediate cost in terms of physical damage to infrastructure.

"But the real cost comes from the knock-on effect which is quite considerable in terms of use of public transport and retail sales, which were sliding anyway.

"There's also tourism and entertainment to consider, there will be less visitors, less people going to theatres and restaurants.

"It's the same as a natural disaster, like, for example, Hurricane Dennis in Florida - there's the physical damage and then the knock-on effect to the economy.

"We estimate 2 to 3 billion pounds in terms of cost to the UK economy and a fall in growth of up to 0.2% over the quarter, although that should rebound next quarter, as it did after September 11 and the Madrid bombings."

Mr Randolph predicted there would also be a surge in the internet retail sector and use of car parks as a result of the London bombings.

He said: "What we saw amid the Sars virus in Asia was a rise in online shopping - the same is likely to happen here.

"People will just think, 'Why risk going out the door when I can just order my hi-fi or groceries or whatever over the internet?' Commuters are also likely to take their cars into work more, rather than chance it on public transport."

    英国“全球市场研究中心”的专家近日表示,伦敦7月7日连环爆炸将会给英国带来多达30亿英镑的损失,它对该国经济产生的影响相当于一场突如其来的天灾。

    据《每日邮报》7月13日报道,该研究机构认为,这次恐怖袭击事件对英国造成的经济损失类似于遭遇一次飓风或一场地震,另外还可能与2003年爆发的非典疫情十分接近。

    扬·伦道夫是这家位于伦敦的知名市场分析机构风险部的主管。他说:“对于城市基础设施的有形破坏是你马上可以看到的损失。但真正的损失则来自于所谓的撞击效应,就是说在公共交通和零售业方面会造成非常大的影响,但其具体表现形式将是缓慢而长期的。另外,旅游业和娱乐业也必须考虑进来,造访英国的游客会减少,而出入剧场和餐馆的人数也会有所下降。这与那些自然灾害,比如肆虐美国佛罗里达的丹尼斯飓风所带来的影响一模一样——先是有形损失,然后就是对于经济的撞击效应。”

    他还说:“我们估计它对英国经济带来的损失会在20亿到30亿英镑之间,尽管从‘9.11’和马德里爆炸案发生后的情况来看,经济发展会在下个季度开始出现反弹趋势,但本季度的发展速度仍将降低0.2个百分点。”

    伦道夫预计,伦敦连环爆炸所带来的另一个后果将是网络零售业和停车场业务的迅猛增长。他说:“在非典病毒于亚洲蔓延之际,我们看到网上购物在那里得到了快速发展——如今这一幕极有可能在英国重演。

    人们会自然而然地想到,‘既然我想要的高保真音响、食品乃至随便什么物品都可以在互联网上买到,那为什么还要冒险走出家门呢?’那些需要每天往返于家与工作单位之间的人们也可能会更多的选择自己驾车,而不是提心吊胆地去乘坐各种公共交通工具。”

责任编辑: lance  来源:
 
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